School of Economics and Management, North China Institute of Science and Technology
School of Mine Safety, North China Institute of Science and Technology
School of Management Science and Engineering, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

为了提高投资项目决策的科学性,促进大国应急事业的发展,提出了应急安全投资项目评价决策的准则。文章分析了期望损益值法、效用期望值理论和预期理论等三类投资项目决策准则的使用中决策者的行为特征,提出了根据风险决策者的风险类型来决定选用的风险决策理论,以及可用风险偏好规避混合决策者的概念来诠释阿莱悖论问题源于风险偏好规避混合者的决策行为的观点,并运用案例论证了风险偏好规避混合者在期望值附近拐点处的投资风险态度会发生逆转或突变的特征。结果表明预期理论的适用对象是风险偏好规避混合者,在应急预案组合决策中期望值理论与期望效用理论存在无效性,主要源于应急投资备选预案的决策者属于风险偏好规避混合决策者,其通常会选择承担具有随机性的事故损失的方案,也不会选择承担具有确定的事故损失的方案。所以在应急投资组合方案决策过程中,考虑风险偏好规避混合者的属性和依据预期理论作为决策准则具有现实指导意义。

In order to improve the scientificity of investment project decision-making and promote the development of emergency cause in large countries, the evaluation and decision-making criteria of emergency safetyinvestment project are put forward.This paper analyzes the behavior characteristics of decision makers in theuse of three investment project decision criteria, such as expected profit and loss value method, utility expected value theory and expectation theory.This paper puts forward the theory of risk decision making based onthe risk types of risk decision makers, and uses the concept of risk preference to avoid mixed decision makersto explain the idea that the Allais paradox is caused by the decision behaviors of risk avoiders, and demonstrates the characteristics of reversal or sudden change of investment risk attitude of risk avoiders at the inflection point near the expected value.The results show that the applicable object of the expectation theory is the risk-averse hybrid, and the expected value theory and expected utility theory are ineffective in the combinationdecision-making of emergency plans, mainly because the decision makers of emergency investment alternativeplans belong to the risk-averse hybrid decision makers, and they usually choose to bear the accident loss planwith randomness.Nor do they choose to bear the costs of a certain accident.Therefore, in the decision-making process of emergency portfolio scheme, it is of practical significance to consider the attributes of risk preference avoiders and take the anticipation theory as the decision-making criterion.

河北省高等教育学会高等教育科学研究规划课题(GJXHZ2021-39);安全统计学课程改革与实践(HKJZD202104)