近年来,我国在供给侧结构性改革方面取得显著成果,成功淘汰了大量产能落后的企业。但在以钢铁行业为代表的高耗能行业仍存在产能过剩的问题。随着国内经济步入新常态,高耗能行业的需求持续下降,如何有效重组行业内部的企业已成为需关注的问题。研究运用实物期权和博弈建模方法,探讨了典型高耗能行业中的企业在面临收购与退出决策时的策略选择。从同质性企业入手,考察市场衰退条件下企业的决策模式,并进一步引入异质生产成本和退出成本,探讨异质性假设带来的企业整合策略性行为。数值模拟实验表明,在存在产能过剩的行业,双头垄断市场中收购行为具有显著的市场结构变革性质,其中可行收购区间持续到被收购企业达到退出阈值。在此阶段,无论是主动收购的企业还是被收购的企业,都表现出更早进行收购的强烈倾向。对于收购企业而言,较早的收购时机意味着可以更快地实现市场垄断,从而增加收购带来的潜在价值;而对于被收购企业,提前被收购则意味着在面临市场退出压力时获得更多的现金流。

In recent years, China has achieved significant results in supply-side structural reforms, successfully eliminating a large amount of backward production capacity.However, the problem of overcapacity still exists in high-consumption industries, such as the steel industry.As the domestic economy enters a new normal, with a continuous decline in demand for these industries, how to effectively restructure enterprises within the industry becomes a matter of concern.This study employs real options and game modeling methods to explore the strategic choices of enterprises in typical high-consumption industries when facing acquisition and exit decisions.Starting with homogeneous enterprises, we examine the decision-making patterns of enterprises under market downturn conditions.Furthermore, by introducing heterogeneous production and exit costs, we discuss the strategic behavior of enterprise integration under the assumption of heterogeneity.Numerical simulation experiments show that in industries with overcapacity, acquisition behavior in a duopolistic market has a significant market structure transformative nature, where the feasible acquisition interval continues until the acquired company reaches the exit threshold.At this stage, both the acquiring and the acquired companies exhibit a strong tendency to engage in acquisitions earlier.For the acquiring company, an earlier acquisition timing means that market monopoly can be achieved more quickly, thereby increasing the potential value of the acquisition; for the acquired company, being acquired earlier means obtaining more cash flow when facing market exit pressure.