School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum

目前二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)项目大多以煤电厂作为碳源、以驱油为主要利用方式。随着CCUS技术不断发展,二氧化碳的工业应用范围也将不断扩大。研究以炼化厂烟气为碳源、以“合成尿素+驱油”为利用方式的CCUS投资决策,基于实物期权理论和最小二乘法蒙特卡洛模拟计算出给定参数条件下的最佳投资时机和最大投资价值,并对一些参数进行了敏感性分析。研究结果表明:当初始碳价水平≥130元/t时,将会触发立即投资条件,高碳价是激励企业进行CCUS投资的重要因素。碳价波动率对炼化企业的CCUS投资决策同样有显著影响,稳定的碳价环境有助于激励投资。驱油补贴≥150元/桶时,能够有效刺激炼化企业进行投资,最佳投资时机提前至2026年,显示出政府政策在推动CCUS项目上的重要性。初始设备投资补贴也能够刺激投资,但效果并不十分显著,可能需要更多政策支持来激励企业投资。基于研究结果提出政策建议,以期能够助力CCUS发展及应用推广。

The mainstream utilization method of current Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) projects involves using coal-fired power plants as carbon sources, primarily for Enhanced Oil Recovery ( EOR) . As CCUS technology applications increase, theindustrial applications of CO will continue to expand. This study investigates CCUS investment decisions using refinery flue gas as a carbonsource and a “Synthetic urea + EOR” CO utilization model. It calculates the optimal investment timing and maximum investment valueunder given parameter conditions using real options theory and Monte Carlo simulation with least squares. Sensitivity analysis on someparameters was also conducted. The study results indicate that an initial carbon price level of 130 yuan per ton triggers immediateinvestment conditions, highlighting high carbon prices as a critical incentive for CCUS investment. Carbon price volatility similarly impactsrefinery CCUS investment decisions significantly, with a stable carbon price environment encouraging investment. EOR subsidies of 150yuan per barrel or higher effectively stimulate refinery investments, advancing the optimal investment timing to as early as 2026,underscoring the importance of government policies in driving CCUS projects. Initial equipment investment subsidies also incentivizeinvestment but to a lesser extent, suggesting more policy support may be needed to encourage corporate investment. Based on thesefindings, the study proposes policy recommendations aimed at promoting the development and application of CCUS.

甘先翔, 方瑞瑞, 冯连勇, 白玉冰. 炼化企业CCUS决策及激励政策研究——以合成尿素为例. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(7): 125-134

GAN Xianxiang, FANG Ruirui, FENG Lianyong, BAI Yubing. Research on investment decision and incentive policies for CCUS in the refining and chemical enterprises: A case study of synthetic urea. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(7): 125-134