School of Geomatics, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China;

2. Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University,Kunming 650000,China;

3. Beijing Urban Construction Exploration & Surveying Design Research Institute Co., Ltd.

长江经济带是我国区域经济发展的重点地区,人类活动频繁,工业发达,能源消费碳排放的快速增加显著影响该地区低碳可持续发展。然而,该地区能源消费碳排放的时空特征及其主要驱动力仍不清楚。基于IPCC碳排放清单估算法,结合空间分析和对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI),对长江经济带2000—2021年能源消费碳排放时空格局、演变特征及主要驱动因素进行综合分析。结果表明:① 2000—2021年长江经济带能源消费碳排放总量和人均能源消费碳排放持续增长,分别增长了4倍和2.9倍;然而单位GDP能源消费碳排放则呈逐年递减趋势,下降了3.3倍;② 从空间分布来看,能源消费碳排放总量和人均碳排放高值区主要集中在东部沿海地区,尤其是江苏、上海等地,而单位GDP碳排放热点地区主要在西部地区;③ 经济发展和人口增长是长江经济带能源消费碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,尤其对长江经济带下游地区的影响最显著。综上,长江经济带各地区能源消费碳排放存在差异,需因地制宜制定减排政策,最终实现整个长江经济带的低碳可持续发展。

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important area of economic development in China, with frequent human activities and developed industrial, and the rapid increase of carbon emissions from energy consumption significantly affects the low-carbon and sustainable development. Based on the IPCC carbon emission inventory estimation method, combined with spatial analysis and log mean Deeley index decomposition (LMDI) method, the spatial-temporal pattern, evolution characteristics and main driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2021 were comprehensively analyzed. The results showed that:① the carbon emissions from energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of energy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt continued to increase, with the increasing by 4 and 2.9 times respectively, while carbon emissions per unit of GDP showed a decreasing trend, with an average decline of 3.3 times. ② From the perspective of spatial distribution, The hot spots of energy consumption carbon emission and carbon emission per unit population are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas, especially Jiangsu, Shanghai, while the hot spots of carbon emission per unit GDP are mainly in the western region. ③ Economic development and population growth are the main driving factors affecting carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, especially in the downstream area. Above all, there are differences in carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and emission reduction policies need to be formulated according to local conditions to ultimately achieve low-carbon sustainable development.

李彦旻, 张晓桦, 张天琦, 兰鹏, 胡成祥. 长江经济带能源消费碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(11): 22-29

LI Yanmin, ZHANG Xiaohua, ZHANG Tianqi, LAN Peng , HU Chengxiang. Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(11): 22-29