China Energy Coal Trading Company

通过对2011年和2021年两次经济周期见顶的比较,选择2013年5月至2023年4月的10年数据作为研究标的,建立关于文华商品指数、钢铁板块指数、煤炭板块指数的VAR模型,得到结论如下:① 文华商品指数、钢铁板块指数、煤炭板块指数存在长期均衡关系;② 文华商品指数和钢铁板块指数、煤炭板块指数互为格兰杰(Granger)因果关系,但钢铁板块指数和煤炭板块指数不互为格兰杰因果关系。通过分析得出:金融属性强的房地产行业在深度上影响中国经济,金融属性弱的煤炭行业在广度上影响中国经济,都会随中国经济而波动;中国经济见顶时,房地产行业和煤炭行业见顶时间有先后,呈现前后双顶形态;中国经济见底时,房地产行业和煤炭行业同步见底,与行业属性差异无关。同时,做出2个预判:2021年开始的系统性衰退至少要延续到2026年第2～3季度;中国房地产行业的库兹涅茨周期在2021年见顶结束。最后,提出要走技术创新道路,才能在2026年第2～3季度中国经济见底后,避免漫长的L型复苏。

By comparing the two economic cycle peaks in 2011 and 2021,this paper selects the 10-year data from May 2013 to April 2023 as the research object,and establishes a VAR model for Wenhua Commodity Index,Steel Sector Index,and Coal Sector Index. The conclusions are as follows:① There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among Wenhua Commodity Index,Steel Sector Index,and Coal Sector Index. ② Wenhua Commodity Index and Steel Sector Index,Coal Sector Index are mutually Granger causality,but Steel Sector Index and Coal Sector Index are not mutually Granger causality. This paper analyzes the following points:the real estate industry with strong financial attributes has a deep impact on the Chinese economy,while the coal industry with weak financial attributes has a wide impact on the Chinese economy,both of which will fluctuate with the Chinese economy; When the Chinese economy peaks,the real estate industry and the coal industry also peak in a sequential manner,presenting a double peaked pattern before and after; When the Chinese economy bottoms out,the real estate industry and the coal industry simultaneously bottom out,regardless of differences in industry attributes. At the same time,this paper makes two predictions:the systemic recession starting from 2021 will continue until at least the second to third quarters of 2026;The Kuznets cycle of China's real estate industry peaked and ended in 2021. Finally,this paper proposes to take the path of technological innovation in order to avoid a long L-shaped recovery after the Chinese economy bottoms out in the second to third quarters of 2026.

王睿. 煤炭和房地产与中国经济周期的关系研究. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(11): 38-48

WANG Rui. Research on the relationship between the coal industry,the real estate industry and the China's economic cycle. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(11): 38-48