Administration Academy,Nantong Normal College

能源消费结构的优化对于实现“双碳”目标和推进生态文明建设具有深远的意义。首先基于1995—2022年间江苏省的能源消费与社会经济数据,对碳排放总量进行了测算,并运用二维脱钩模型分析了江苏省能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系;其次采用马尔可夫模型对2023—2035年江苏省的能源消费结构进行了情景预测。通过将不同能源消费总量的控制力度、能源消费结构的优化策略以及经济增长速度组合成36种可能的情景,计算了各种情景下江苏省能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩弹性系数,并深入分析其脱钩状态的演变。研究表明:在1995—2022年间,江苏省的碳排放总量和人均碳排放量分别以年均4.51%和3.79%的速度增长;能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间的关系呈现出多样化的脱钩状态,其中以低经济水平下的弱脱钩状态为主;在预测期(2023—2035年)内,通过有效控制能源消费总量、优化调整能源消费结构以及促进经济增长,可以不同程度降低脱钩弹性系数;另一方面,只有在能源消费总量得到强化控制且能源消费结构进行中幅度调整的情况下,江苏省才有可能实现碳排放与经济增长之间的强脱钩理想状态。

The optimization of energy consumption structure is of far-reaching significance for achieving the goal of “double carbon” and promoting the construction of ecological civilization. Firstly, based on the energy consumption and socio-economic data of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2022, this study calculates the total carbon emissions, and uses the two-dimensional decoupling model to analyze the decoupling relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. Secondly, the Markov model is used to predict the energy consumption structure of Jiangsu Province from 2023 to 2035. By combining the control of different total energy consumption, the optimization strategy of energy consumption structure and the economic growth rate into 36 possible scenarios, the decoupling elasticity coefficient between carbon emissions of energy consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province under various scenarios is calculated, and the evolution of its decoupling state is analyzed in depth. The results show that from 1995 to 2022, the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province increased at an average annual rate of 4.51 % and 3.79 %, respectively. The relationship between carbon emissions from energy consumption and economic growth presents a diversified decoupling state, in which the weak decoupling state under low economic level is the main one. In the forecast period ( 2023～2035 ), the reduction of decoupling elasticity coefficient can be expected by effectively controlling the total energy consumption, optimizing and adjusting the energy consumption structure and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, only when the total energy consumption is controlled and the energy consumption structure is adjusted in a moderate range, it is possible for Jiangsu Province to achieve a strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth.

邢红. 江苏省能源消费结构优化与碳脱钩效应研究. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(11): 49-58

XING Hong. Study on the optimization of energy consumption structure and carbon decoupling effect in Jiangsu Province. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(11): 49-58