1. Chongqing Vocational Institute of Engineering, Chongqing , China; 2. Key Laboratory for Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring of SBSM, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China

为了得到实测资料较少、地质采矿条件特殊的重庆市矿区概率积分法预计参数，首先分析了现阶段重庆市3大煤矿区开采沉陷实测参数，然后分别利用P系数法、模糊模式识别、相似理论3种类比方法分析了重庆矿区概率积分法预计参数，最后通过比较类比分析参数与实测参数得出各方法的优缺点及适用范围，由此提出一种适用于重庆矿区预计参数的综合类比分析方法。研究结果表明：①覆岩综合评价P系数方法不能准确地反应开采深厚比和煤层倾角的差异对各预计参数的影响情况；②利用模糊模式识别或相似理论建立的开采沉陷相似现象群主要以东部矿区的实测参数为主，由此建立的参数函数模型对于重庆矿区参数的相似性不大；③利用综合类比分析得出的预计参数与实测参数之间的差异较小，能有效类比得出重庆矿区无实测资料的开采沉陷预计参数，为重庆市矿区煤矿进行开采沉陷预计提供了科学依据。

The prediction of mine surface subsidence in mining area of Chongqing City is challenging because of lack of field measurements data and particularity of geological and mining conditions in the area. The paper is devoted to develop a prediction method based on analogy analysis which is applicable to the mine area of Chongqing City. The field measured surface subsidence data of three coal mining districts in Chongqing City was analyzed. Then, three analogy analysis methods, the P-Coefficient Method, Fuzzy Cluster Analysis,and Similarity Theory Method, were applied to predict surface subsidence parameters separately. By comparing the predicted results with the field measured data, the authors investigated the advantages and disadvantages and the applicable situations for the three methods. The comprehensive evaluation coefficient of overburden by P-Coefficient Method could not accurately predict subsidence parameters under the influence of different ratio of mining depth and mining thickness and different angle of coal seams. The subsidence phenomena cluster method based on fuzzy cluster analysis or similarity theory were built mainly upon field measured data in the eastern mining area of China, thus the prediction model was not applicable to mines in mining area of Chongqing City. The prediction parameters using comprehensive analogy analysis presented least difference from the field measured subsidence parameters among the three models. It was proved that the comprehensive analogy analysis was an effective method to predict subsidence parameters in mining areas of Chongqing City, which provides practical references for subsidence predictions without field measured data in the area.