城市化和碳排放之间关系密切,现有研究多从单一维度来衡量城市化,而忽略了城市化的多维性。基于31省2017—2021年二氧化碳排放量数据,首先对省域二氧化碳排放量空间分布特征进行了研究;然后运用空间计量模型,实证分析了影响二氧化碳排放的驱动因素。研究结果如下:①省域二氧化碳排放量总体发展态势不均衡,西部地区二氧化碳排放量上升迅速,东部和中部地区二氧化碳排放量变化不显著,两级分化现象逐渐削弱。②二氧化碳排放量存在明显的空间集聚特征,相邻省份的二氧化碳排放量存在相关性,逐渐向区域均衡发展的碳排放态势转变。③第二产业比重提高以及煤炭消费量增加是驱动二氧化碳排放的重要因素,区域经济发展水平提高、区域技术水平升级以及外商直接投资增加可以有效地减少二氧化碳排放,改善环境质量。

Based on the data of carbon dioxide emissions in 31 provinces from 2017 to 2021, the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions in provinces were studied in detail. Then, the spatial econometric model was used to empirically analyze the driving factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions.The results are as follows :(1) the overall development trend of carbon dioxide emissions in the provinces is uneven. The carbon dioxide emissions in the western region rise rapidly, while the carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern and central regions do not change significantly, and the two-level differentiation phenomenon gradually weakens.(2) The carbon dioxide emissions have obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the carbon dioxide emissions of neighboring provinces are correlated, and gradually change to the trend of regional balanced development of carbon emissions.(3) The increase in the proportion of secondary industry and coal consumption are important factors driving carbon dioxide emissions. Regional economic development, regional technological upgrading and foreign direct investment can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve environmental quality.