基于IPPC法,测算了珠三角城市群2001—2021年的碳排放量;运用因素分解模型,明确珠三角城市群碳排放的驱动因素,进而运用灰色模型GM(1,1)对珠三角城市群2022—2030年的碳排放量进行预测。结果表明:①2001—2021年,研究区碳排放量呈先上升、后下降趋势,LMDI因素分解显示能源强度效应、能源结构效应、经济产出效应和人口规模效应对碳排放量有明显的影响。②灰色预测模拟显示深圳、广州、佛山、肇庆、东莞、珠海和中山这7座城市在2020年前已碳达峰。③惠州、江门有碳达峰潜力。研究区在有效推动经济发展的同时,需进一步优化产业结构与能源结构,通过发挥政策优势来减少碳排放量,从而有效地推动珠三角地区的碳减排和经济发展。

Based on the IPPC method, this paper calculates the carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2001 to2021, and uses the factor decomposition model to classify the driving factors of carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta urbanagglomeration, and then uses the gray model GM( 1. 1) to predict the carbon emission of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from2022 to 2030. The results show: ①from 2001 to 2021, the carbon emission in the study area increased first and then decreased, LMDI factordecomposition show that energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, economic output effect and population size effect had a significantimpact on carbon emissions. ② The gray prediction simulation shows that seven cities, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing, Dongguan,Zhuhai, and Zhongshan, had reached carbon peaks before 2020. ③Huizhou and Jiangmen have carbon peak potential. While effectivelypromoting economic development, the study area needs to further optimize the industrial structure and energy structure and reduce carbonemissions by take advantage of the policy, so as to effectively promote the carbon emission reduction and the economy in the Pearl RiverDelta region.