随着能源革命的深入推进和新型电力系统的加速构建,我国面临着电力安全保供的新形势。设立电煤公共库存,在负荷高峰期为电厂提供短期燃料补充,充分发挥煤电的兜底保供作用,对保障我国电力安全具有重要意义。在分析华中地区电煤库存特点的基础上,以社会成本最小为目标,考虑电力平衡和电煤运力约束,构建了极端天气下需求激增的电煤公共库存决策模型;基于华中地区实际数据对电力需求激增所需建立的公共库存容量及数量,进行了算例分析,并进一步分析了高电力需求持续时间与运力供给对公共库存决策的影响。结果表明,在高电力需求与低运力供给条件下,相较于电煤供给不足引发拉闸限电带来的经济损失,公共库存的建立具有成本优势,能够有效地发挥煤炭的压舱石作用和煤电的基础性调节性作用,保障华中地区的能源电力安全。研究结论也可为我国其他区域设立煤炭公共库存提供参考。

With the in-depth advancement of the energy revolution and the accelerated construction of new power systems, China faces a new challenge of ensuring power supply. One of the important strategies to cope with this challenge is to establish a public coal reserve that can provide short-term fuel for power plants during peak demand and respond quickly to power generation needs. This paper builds a decision model for public coal reserve under extreme weather conditions that cause a surge in demand, based on the analysis of thermal coal inventory characteristics in Central China. The model aims to minimize the social cost and considers the constraints of power balance and coal transportation capacity. Using actual data from Central China, the paper conducts a case study to estimate the capacity and quantity of public reserve needed for the surge in electricity demand, and further analyzes how the duration of high demand and the availability of transportation capacity affect the reserve decision. The results indicate that under high demand and low transportation capacity scenarios, public reserve has a cost advantage over the economic losses caused by power cuts due to insufficient coal supply. Public reserve can also effectively enhance the role of coal as a stabilizer and regulator for coal power, ensuring energy and power security in Central China. The findings can also inform the establishment of coal public reserves in other regions of China.