School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Anhui University of Science and Technology
School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University

地表移动延续时间是地表移动稳定评价的关键指标，精确预计该时间对于地表及地面设施的稳定性评估至关重要。首先分析了经典Knothe时间模型描述地表动态沉降规律的不足，然后基于该模型基本假设，提出新的模型假设，建立了仅含一个模型参数且能够精确描述地表动态沉降、沉降速度和沉降加速度的改进Knothe时间模型。其后，基于改进Knothe时间模型，建立了能够综合考虑煤层采高、平均采深和煤层开采速度等因素的地表移动延续时间预测模型，并根据概率积分法给出了模型参数的确定方法。最后，采用20个矿区地表移动延续时间监测数据对地表移动延续时间预测模型的合理性和精确性进行验证。结果表明：基于改进Knothe时间模型的地表移动延续时间模型预测结果与20个矿区监测结果基本吻合，2者均方根误差ERMS仅为64 d，小于《建筑物、水体、铁路及主要井巷煤柱留设与压煤开采指南》预测模型的882 d和Knothe时间模型的152 d，验证了地表移动延续时间预测模型的合理性和精确性；地表移动延续时间受煤层采高、平均采深和煤层开采速度的影响，且随煤层采高的增加而非线性增加，随平均采深的增加而线性增加，但随煤层开采速度的增加而非线性减小；当煤层开采速度小于5 m/d时，可通过适当增加煤层开采速度来缩短地表移动延续时间。研究可为煤层开采地表移动变形稳定时间预测提供一定的借鉴和参考。

The surface movement duration is a key parameter for the evaluation of the stability of surface movement and deformation, and accurately predicting the surface movement duration under different geological conditions and mining intensity is crucial for the stability assessment of the surface and ground facilities. Firstly, a new model assumption is proposed based on the classical Knothe time model assumption, and an improved Knothe time model, which only contains one model parameter and can accurately describe the dynamic subsidence law of the surface, has been developed. Then, based on the improved Knothe time model, a surface movement duration prediction model that can comprehensively consider the mining depth, coal seam thickness and mining speed of the working face is established, and the determination method of model parameters is provided according to the probability integral method. Finally, the accuracy and rationality of the surface movement duration prediction model were verified by using monitoring data of the surface movement duration in 20 mining areas. The results showed that the predicted value of the surface movement duration prediction model based on the improved Knothe time model is highly consistent with the monitoring values in 20 mining areas, and their root mean square error (ERMS) is only 64 days, which is far less than 882 days of the Specifications of Coal Mining and Pillar Retention Under Buildings, Water and Railways and 152 days of the Knothe time model, which verifies the accuracy and rationality of the prediction model of surface movement duration. The surface movement duration is affected by coal seam mining height, average mining depth and coal seam mining speed, and increases nonlinearly with the increase of coal seam mining height, increases linearly with the increase of average mining depth, but decreases nonlinearly with the increase of coal seam mining speed; When the mining speed of coal seam is less than 5 m/d, the surface movement duration can be shortened by appropriately increasing the mining speed of coal seam. The study can provide some reference for the prediction of the stable time of surface movement and deformation in coal mining.

安徽省高校科研资助项目(2023AH051203)；安徽理工大学高层次引进人才科研启动基金资助项目(2022yjrc32)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(51874005)

张亮亮，程桦，姚直书，等. 基于改进Knothe时间模型的地表移动延续时间预测[J]. 煤炭学报，2023，48(11)：4001−4010.

ZHANG Liangliang，CHENG Hua，YAO Zhishu，et al. Prediction of mining-induced surface movement duration based on an improved Knothe time model[J]. Journal of China Coal Society，2023，48(11)：4001−4010.