School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering

基于中国碳核算数据库(CEADs)发布的《2017年30个省份排放清单》中新疆各产业能源消费碳排放数据以及《中国地区投入产出表》中新疆2017年投入产出数据,使用EIO-LCA(投入产出生命周期评价模型)对新疆各产业间生产链隐含碳排放进行分析,测算由最终需求导致的碳排放总量,并构建碳减排潜力模型,评价新疆各产业的减排潜力。研究结果表明:①新疆各产业直接碳排放主要来自高耗能行业,包括电热生产和供应业、金属冶炼和压延加工业与化学工业。②从生产链视角来看,建筑业是隐含碳排放最大的产业,占比达到35.92%。进一步对建筑业隐含碳排放来源进行分解,结果发现生产链中的电热生产和供应业、非金属矿物制品业和金属冶炼和压延加工业的排放量对建筑业隐含排放量的贡献最大。③从消费需求视角来看,国内省外流出消费需求导致的碳排放占比最大,达到52.9%,证实了新疆处于省域碳排放净调入的地位。④新疆减排潜力最大的产业是石油和天然气开采业、木材加工及家具制造业、非金属矿物制品业、化学工业、电热生产和供应业,属于第1减排潜力。基于研究结果,提出降低以煤炭为主的化石能源消耗、提高工业电气化水平、加强省域间碳减排合作以及重点关注碳减排潜力高的产业的政策建议,助力新疆产业结构转型升级和“双碳”目标早日达成。

This article is based on the energy consumption carbon emissions data of various industries in Xinjiang in the “2017 EmissionsInventory of 30 Provinces” released by the China Carbon Accoun-ting Database (CEADs), as well as the input-output data of variousindustries in Xinjiang in the “China Regional Input-output Table” . The EIO-LCA model is used to analyze the hidden carbon emissionsin the production chain of various industries in Xinjiang, calculate the total carbon emissions caused by final demand, and construct acarbon emission reduction potential model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of various industries in Xinjiang. The research resultsindicate that: ① The direct carbon emissions of various industries in Xinjiang mainly come from high - energy consuming industries,including electric heating production and supply, metal smelting and rolling processing, and chemical industries. ② From the perspectiveof the production chain, the construction industry is the industry with the highest hidden carbon emissions, accountting for 35. 92% .Further decomposition of the sources of hidden carbon emissions in the construction industry revealed that the emissions from the electricheating production and supply industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, and metal smelting and rolling industry in the productionchain contributed the most to the hidden emissions in the construction industry. ③ From the perspective of consumer demand, the implicitcarbon emissions from domestic and foreign outflow demand account for the largest proportion, reaching 52. 9%, confirming that Xinjiang isin a position of net carbon emissions inflow within the province. ④ The industries with the greatest emission reduction potential in Xinjiangare oil and gas extraction, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, non - metallic mineral products, chemical industry, electricheating production and supply industry, which belong to the first emission reduction potential. Based on the research results, policyrecommendations are proposed to reduce fossil energy consumptiondominatedbycoal,improveindustrialelectrificationlevel,strengthen inter provincial carbon reduction cooperation, and focuson industries with high carbon reduction potential, in order toassist in the transformation and upgrading of Xinjiang’s industrialstructure and the early achievement of the “dual carbon” goal.

新疆维吾尔自治区新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究课题(2023JFLY24);新疆工程学院低碳经济研究中心重点项目(DTZX2022001)