College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University
Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health,Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

锂、钴、镍等能源金属被视为支撑绿色低碳技术的重要物质基础和全球碳中和战略的潜在资源约束,已成为各国竞相争夺的战略资源。当下国际地缘政治格局日益恶化,能源金属全球供应链不确定性持续增加,强化矿产资源安全供应保障机制建设的必要性与紧迫性日益显著。基于能源金属原材料物质流研究框架,以锂、钴、镍、铜、稀土、铂族元素6种能源金属为代表,立足于全球视野与国家视角,以2010—2019年为时间边界,系统刻画了能源金属原材料供应链的物质流动格局现状及我国的角色地位,并从对外依赖程度及集中度2方面厘清了我国能源金属的外部风险来源及演变过程。研究发现:①中国是能源金属的净进口国,且净进口规模持续扩大,能源金属供需格局呈现“全链条进口依赖”特征,在全球能源金属原材料供应网络中扮演“冶炼加工厂”角色;②中国绝大多数能源金属对外依存度逐年攀升,对外依赖的产品类型由以矿产品为主逐步向产业链下游延伸;③中国能源金属原材料的来源呈现相对固定、但逐步集中的趋势,非洲、东盟等新兴发展中国家/地区成为我国能源金属的主要海外供应地。研究建议我国能源金属资源安全管控应注重“国内国外两手抓”,体现于对外重视全球贸易对我国能源金属资源需求的“填平”作用,多角度、多方式地发展与供应国的友好关系与贸易绑定;对内开展能源金属多种类的适时收储,加紧能源金属资源回收体系构建,推进城市矿产图谱绘制与区域综合布局,以促进实现我国能源金属资源国内国外双循环。

China’s energy metal supply has become increasingly critical due to its importance for supporting green and low - carbontechnologies. This study aims to assess the risks associated with China’s energy metal supply from the perspective of material flow analysis.The research focuses on six representative energy metals, namely lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, rare earth elements, and platinumgroup elements. By examining the material flow patterns and China’s role in the global supply chain, this study provides insights into thecurrent status and potential risks of China’s energy metal supply. The findings reveal that (1) China is a net importer of energy metals,with a growing dependence on external sources. (2) The external dependence of most energy metals in China has progressively increasedwith the types of products gradually extending downstream along the industrial chain. (3) The sources of China’ s energy metal rawmaterials demonstrate a relatively fixed but gradually concentrated trend. Emerging developing countries/ regions such as Africa and ASEANhave become the primary overseas supply sources for China’ senergy metals. This research suggests that China’s management ofenergy metal resource security should focus on both domestic andforeign aspects. This research contributes to the understanding ofChina’s energy metal supply dynamics and provides a foundationfor the development of effective risk management strategies.

国家自然科学基金委员会与联合国环境规划署合作研究项目(71961147003)