School of Mining and Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering

为了克服煤矿井下透水事故安全性评价相关因子的不确定性，以及权重指标赋值模糊的问题，采用Bow-Tie模型分析法通过对煤矿井下的人、物、环境、管理4个方面的分析研究，建立出煤矿透水事故的Bow-Tie评价模型，把得到的12项透水事故的影响因子作为煤矿透水事故风险评估的评价指标。通过层次分析法对指标进行权重的赋值，最后由未确知测度法确定煤矿透水事故风险评价等级。通过对某矿井进行实例评估分析，评价结果与该煤矿实际相符合，可见该法的合理性和适用性，可以为煤矿透水事故的风险评价提出一些指导。

In order to overcome the uncertainty of the safety evaluation factors of coal mine flooding accidents and the problem of fuzzy weight index assignment, the Bow-Tie model analysis method is used to establish the Bow-Tie evaluation model of coal mine flooding accidents through the analysis and research of four aspects of people, things, environment and management in coal mine. The influence factors of 12 flooding accidents are used as the evaluation indexes of risk assessment of coal mine flooding accidents. Through the analytic hierarchy process, the weight of the index is assigned, and finally the risk assessment level of the coal mine flooding accident is determined by the unascertained measurement method. Through the example evaluation and analysis of a mine, the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of the coal mine. It can be seen that the rationality and applicability of the method can provide some guidance for the risk assessment of coal mine flooding accidents.

侯 玮，马润泽，林 倩，毕昊媛. 基于Bow-Tie模型和未确知测度理论的煤矿透水风险分析[J]. 煤炭与化工, 2024, 47(1): 110-114.

Hou Wei, Ma Runze, Lin Qian, Bi Haoyuan. Permeability risk analysis of coal mine based on Bow-Tie model and unascertained measure theory. CCI, 2024, 47(1): 110-114.