China Energy Investment Group Co.

为实现“碳达峰、碳中和”时代使命,各大国有能源企业均在争相并购中小型新能源电力企业。从收益法角度出发,对收益法在国企新能源电力项目并购评估中存在的风险因素展开探讨。研究发现:企业价值评估工作主要发生在并购前期和中期2个阶段,对应风险主要为价值判断中的道德风险、资料收集中的信息不对称风险、尽职调查中的信息失真风险和评估过程中的操作风险。围绕A电力公司并购B风电公司的案例,对发电小时、售电价格、国补政策、设备稳定性费、成本费用水平和折现率这6个收益法参数进行敏感性分析,确定出各因素对整体项目的影响程度,验证国有企业新能源电力项目并购业务存在评估风险的结论。针对国企新能源电力项目并购中常见的风险,提出了对策建议,为助力国有企业实现投资收益最大化提供支持。

In order to achieve the mission of “emission peak and carbon neutrality” in the era, major state-owned energy enterprises arecompeting to merge and acquire small and medium-sized new energy power enterprises. From the perspective of income method, thisarticle discusses the risk factors existing in the mergers and acquisitions evaluation of new energy power projects in state-owned enterprises.The study found that the enterprise value assessment mainly occurs in the early and middle stage of enterprises’ M & A, and thecorresponding risks mainly include moral hazard in value judgment, information asymmetry risk in data collection, information distortionrisk in due diligence, and operational risk in the evaluation process. This article focuses on the case of A power company's acquisition of Bwind power company, conducting a sensitivity analysis of six income method parameters: power generating hours, electricity sales price,national subsidy policy, equipment stability cost, cost level, and discount rate, determines the degree of influence of each factor on theoverall project, and verifies the conclusion that there are assessment risks in the M & A business of new energy power projects of state-owned enterprises. In view of the common risks in the M & A of new energy power projects of state-owned enterprises, this paper putsforward countermeasures and suggestions to help state-owned enterprises maximize investment returns.

0 引言
1 相关概念解析
1.1 新能源相关概念
1.2 并购相关概念
1.3 并购中的企业价值评估风险
2新能源电力并购项目中收益法评估的应用风险
2.1 收益法评估应用情况
2.2 收益法评估模型
2.3 收益法评估的风险因素分析
2.3.1 并购前期潜在的评估风险
2.3.2 并购中期潜在的评估风险
2.4 风险因素敏感性分析
3 A电力公司并购B风电公司的案例分析
3.1 净现金流预测
3.2 敏感性分析
4 结论与建议
4.1 结论
4.2 建议