School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology

发展循环经济,推进资源节约和循环利用,构建循环型产业体系,是推动实现“双碳”目标,促进绿色发展的重要战略举措。基于经济发展水平、资源与污染减量水平、资源循环利用水平、生态环境保护水平4个维度,构建省域循环经济发展水平指标体系,运用熵值法测算2011—2021年中国30个省份循环经济发展水平。同时,基于空间杜宾模型,实证检验循环经济发展水平对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应。结果表明:①循环经济与碳减排均具有正向的空间自相关性,且形成基本相反的空间集聚区;②循环经济发展水平的提升对本地区碳减排有显著的抑制作用,对邻近区域具有“空间溢出”效应,且间接效应强于直接效应。

Developing a circular economy, promoting resource conservation as well as recycling, and building a circular industrial systemare important strategic measures to achieve the goal of “ carbon peak or carbon neutrality” and promote green development. The indexsystem of provincial circular economy development level was constructed based on four dimensions: economic development level, resourceand pollution reduction level, resource recycling level and ecological environmental protection level, and the entropy method was used toestimate the circular economy development level of 30 provinces in China during 2011—2021. Based on the spatial dubinmodel, theinfluence of circular economy development level on carbon emission intensity was tested. The results show that, ① circular economy andcarbon emission intensity have positive spatial autocorrelation, and form basically opposite spatial agglomeration area; ② the improvementof the development level of circular economy has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity, and this phenomenon has a“spatial spillover” effect which exceeds direct effect.

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(20YJC790004);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2019M651831)

0 引言
1 研究假设
2 模型设定与变量选取
2.1 模型设定
2.1.1 空间权重矩阵
2.1.2 空间自相关检验
2.1.3 空间计量模型设定
2.2 变量选择
2.2.1 被解释变量：碳排放强度（Y)
2.2.2 解释变量：循环经济发展水平（X)
2.2.3 控制变量
2.3 数据来源
3 实证分析
3.1 循环经济及碳减排的空间关联性
3.1.1 全域空间关联性分析
3.1.2 局域空间关联性分析
3.2 循环经济对碳减排的空间效应
3.2.1 空间计量模型选择检验
3.2.2 空间计量分析
4 稳健性检验
5 研究结论与政策启示
5.1 研究结论
5.2 政策启示