School of Management, Guizhou University

面对气候变化、能源消费与碳排放、经济发展的冲突,研究碳税政策对中国“双碳”目标的实现与对中国地区发展和平衡的影响,及其对能源消费的综合影响具有较强的现实意义。构建了基于多区域投入产出(MRIO)的碳税模型,分别从碳税税率、行业与区域征税差异以及行业与区域碳税补贴差异进行碳税政策模拟,利用数据包络模型(DEA)对模拟结果进行综合效益评价,旨在通过对碳税政策的调整来探讨区域间的经济关联,量化气候、能源、经济与区域平衡发展和碳税等要素之间的交互关系,提出适合地区内发展且综合效益最佳的碳税政策。研究表明,在较低碳税水平(20元/t),对于山西省、贵州省等地区的商业、农林牧渔产品和服务行业具有良好的综合效益,且在碳减排、经济与区域平衡发展上具有三重红利。

In the face of the conflict between climate change, energy consumption, carbon emission and economic development, it is necessary to study the comprehensive impact of carbon tax policy on China’s dual carbon target policy with the development and balance of Chinese regions and energy consumption. The study is based on the carbon tax model of multiregional input-output model, and simulates and analyzes the carbon tax policy from the perspectives of carbon tax rate, industry-region taxing difference, and industry-region carbon tax subsidy difference, and evaluates the simulation results by using the data envelopment model (DEA) to evaluate the comprehensive benefits, aiming to explore the inter-regional impacts of the carbon tax policy through the adjustments of the carbon tax policy. The purpose of the simulation is to explore the interdependence between regions through the adjustment of carbon tax policies, quantify the interaction between climate, energy, economic and regional balanced development and carbon tax, and propose the carbon tax policy that is suitable for the development of the region with the best comprehensive benefits. The study shows that at a lower carbon tax level (20 yuan/ ton), carbon tax subsidies for business, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery products and service industries in backward regions such as Shanxi Province and Guizhou Province have a good comprehensive benefit and a triple dividend in carbon emission reduction, economic and regional balanced development.

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(72104062)