煤炭市场供需关系是决定煤炭价格的最主要因素。阐述2023年煤炭市场运行情况及煤炭价格变动情况,并从供应、需求2个方面对2024年煤炭市场走势进行预测。分析认为,2024年,随着政策端开始由“增产”向“稳产”转变,国内煤炭产量增幅将收窄,进口煤量将与2023年相当;全国两会定调2024年经济“稳中求进”,煤炭需求或较为平稳。综合来看,2024年煤炭市场供需关系将较为宽松,中东部地区阶段性偏紧,煤炭价格中枢将整体下移至800~1000元/t区间。

The supply and demand relationship in the coal market is the most important factor determining coal prices. This article elaborates on the operation of the coal market and the changes in coal prices in 2023. We have predicted the trend of the coal market in 2024 from both supply and demand perspectives. Analysis suggests that in 2024, as the policy side begins to shift from “ increasing production” to “stabilizing production”, the growth rate of domestic coal production will narrow, and the amount of imported coal will be similar to that of 2023; The National People’ s Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference have set the tone for “steady progress in the economy” in 2024, and coal demand may remain relatively stable. Overall, in 2024, the supply and demand relationship in the coal market will be relatively loose, with a temporary tightening in the central and eastern regions, and the coal price center will move down to the range of 800~1 000 yuan/ ton as a whole.