碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)技术对电力系统低碳转型至关重要,但CCUS在不同煤电退役速率下的综合效益尚不明晰。使用全球变化评估模型(GCAM)计及煤电退役速率设定3种共享社会经济路径–代表性浓度路径(SSPs-RCPs)耦合情景:SSP1-2.6(提前退煤情景)、SSP2-4.5(逐步退煤情景)、SSP5-6.0(缓慢退煤情景),基于技术学习曲线模型动态量化CCUS技术应用在电力系统低碳转型中的不同成效。结果显示:到2060年,3情景仍有5.0亿~6.5亿t的碳排放,因此需要提前部署空气捕集(DAC)负碳技术;SSP1-2.6经济代价最高,较SSP2-4.5和SSP5-6.0分别高13.54%和6.31%;总体来看,到2060年3情景CCUS将缓解21.79亿~38.24亿t水资源压力,减少6.85亿~9.25亿t的CO2,填补43.74万~191.33万因煤电退役而造成的就业缺口,但也将会增加6.39%~11.75%的能源消耗。

Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage (CCUS) technologies are crucial for the decarbonization of the power sector,yetthe comprehensive benefits of CCUS under varying rates of coal power decommissioning remain unclear. This study employed the GlobalChange Assessment Model (GCAM) to integrate coal retirement rates within three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - RepresentativeConcentration Pathways (SSPs-RCPs) scenarios:SSP1-2.6 (accelerated coal phase-out),SSP2-4.5 (gradual coal phase-out),andSSP5-6.0 (slow coal phase-out). It dynamically quantified the varying impacts of CCUS technology on the power sector's transition tolow carbon using a technology learning curve model. The results indicated that by 2060,all three scenarios would still emit (500-650)million tonnes of carbon, necessitating the early deployment of Direct Air Capture (DAC) carbon-negative technologies.Economically,SSP1-2.6 proved to be the most costly,being 13.54% and 6.31% higher than SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-6.0,respectively. Overall,by2060, CCUS under these scenarios was projected to alleviate water resource pressures by (2.179-3.824)billion tonnes, reduce CO2emissions by (685-925)million tonnes, bridge employment gaps caused by coal retirement ranging from 43.74 thousand to 191.33thousand jobs,but it also increased energy consumption by 6.39% to 11.75%.

0 引言

1 研究方法

   1.1 情景设置

   1.2 学习曲线模型

   1.3 就业系数法

2 结果分析

   2.1 计及煤电退役速率的电力转型路径

   2.2 电力转型终CCUS环境效益

   2.3 经济效益评估

   2.4 社会效益评估

   2.5 能源效益评估

3 结论